Who Will Survive the Upcoming Fall of Civilization?

Maybe who you figured, maybe not who you would have preferred

Glen Hendrix


Boreal Forest — Courtesy Wikimedia Commons

Our world runs on oil. In the form of diesel it powers the giant combine harvesters and tractors that make agriculture on an industrial scale possible so that we can feed eight billion people planet wide.

Diesel powers the ships that transport the grain and goods to every port in the world. It powers the semis and trains that haul all that stuff over land.

It powers the giant dump trucks that move ore out of the mines. It powers the equipment that digs that ore and puts it in the trucks.

Our pharmaceuticals are made from petroleum stocks.

With no food or drugs, our civilization will degenerate into armed, roving gangs of desperate people looking for food, water, and medicine. The people who refused vaccinations for COVID19 will be willing to commit murder to obtain penicillin.

We have about 39 years of reserves left at our current consumption rate of 97 million barrels a day. According to Sir David King, a former chief scientist for the British government, that number is inflated by up to a third. If that is true, there are only about 26 years of oil left.

There may be more discoveries that extend this a few years but, according to scientists, sixty percent of that is supposed to stay in the ground to keep average temperatures from rising beyond 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit. That sixty percent is based on the inflated value of 39 years of reserves. Which means we may have only about 6 or 7 years before we blow through the 2.7 degree F. barrier.

Governments will do everything to delay running out of oil so they can hang on to power for just a little bit longer.

There will be rationing, conscription into farm labor, and martial law, but it won’t be enough.

To add insult to injury, they will begin the liquefaction of coal to turn into petroleum stocks for the making of diesel and the manufacture of drugs. This process was invented in Germany and helped the Nazis get by without petroleum reserves in WWII. This will have a very negative effect on climate change.