How Can We Tell When the Fall of Civilization Has Begun?
It will be hauntingly familiar to some of us
During the height of the pandemic we experienced shortages. Much of this was due to lockdowns and hoarding. The start of collapse will be similar but for different reasons. And it won’t be just shortages.
It has already begun.
It won’t be a dramatic overnight thing. It will be gradual. Like climate change, there will be periods of intensity followed by lulls where you can almost pretend things are normal. But they’re not.
The cost of raw material will have an increasingly pronounced effect on the quantity and price of goods. We have quickly, on an historic scale, used up the good stuff. Ore grades are declining. As they decline, more and more energy is required to dig them from the earth and transport them to processing plants and smelters. The processing plants require more energy to concentrate the ores. At the same time, energy costs are going up. Iron ore quality is already putting kinks in the plans for “green” steel.
Regional political strife is affecting the Suez Canal. It is causing ships to divert around the southern tip of Africa, costing shippers up to a million dollars more each trip in time and fuel. It is costing the U.S. government two million dollars to take…
